Short answer. Before expiration, Max Pain does not pull price more than a random level: in our test on 17 CME products (June–September 2026), price moved closer to the current series' Max Pain in 38% of cases and to a "mirror" level at the same distance on the other side in 37%. After expiration the picture differs: price reached the expired Max Pain in 47% of cases versus 27% for the mirror level, but that is only 30 expirations — an observation, not a rule.
What Max Pain is and where the "pull" idea comes from
Max Pain is the strike at which holders of a series' options would collectively receive the least at expiration. It is computed from the series' open interest: the more positions sit out of the money across strikes, the larger the payout when price moves away from a level. The hypothesis follows: option sellers may hedge in a way that nudges price toward Max Pain. It sounds plausible, but the exchange report does not show who bought and who sold, so it has to be tested against price.
How we tested it
- Data: daily CME option reports (open interest by strike) and broker prices converted to CME units.
- Markets and period: 17 products — currencies, metals, energy, indices; June–September 2026.
- Control: for every level we took a "mirror" one — at the same distance from price, on the other side. Without it the test misleads: any price has a chance to end up closer to some level simply because of ordinary movement and the trend of the period.
- Two questions: does price get pulled to the current series' Max Pain before its expiration, and does it drift toward an already expired Max Pain over the next 20 trading days?
Result 1: no difference before expiration
38% versus 37% is within noise. Looking at the last days before expiration or at single days gives the same overall picture: Max Pain has no edge over the mirror level. Within individual market groups the numbers diverge, but the samples are small and no reliable conclusions can be drawn per group.
Practical takeaway: a series' Max Pain before expiration is a map of where positions sit, not a target and not a "support" or "resistance" level.
Result 2: after expiration — an intriguing hint
When a series expired far from its Max Pain, price touched that level over the next 20 trading days in 47% of cases; a mirror level at the same distance was touched in 27%. The gap is notable, but the sample is 30 expirations and summer 2026 was a trending market. We treat it as a hypothesis to keep testing: as history accumulates we recompute and update this article.
To see how it looks on a specific market, open the live pages: gold, EUR/USD, S&P 500 — each has a "pull of an expired Max Pain" block when the previous series expired far from price.
What to do with it as a trader
- Do not trade "from Max Pain" as if it were a level: no edge before expiration was found.
- Check where Max Pain sits relative to price and the expected move: if it is far outside the range, it says nothing.
- After a monthly expiration far from Max Pain, keep the expired level in view as context, not as a signal.
- Cross-check with open interest and expiration dates rather than relying on one number.
Limits of the test
- A short period (about three months) and a trending market: in a sideways market the result may differ.
- CME reports come out once a day: they do not show what happens inside the day.
- Broker price is not CME price; we convert units, but small differences are possible.
- Open interest does not distinguish an option's buyer from its seller, so "who hedges and how" remains an assumption.
Questions and answers
Does Max Pain work?
As a level price is pulled to before expiration — not in our test: 38% versus 37% for the mirror level. As a reference after expiration there is a hint (47% versus 27%), but on 30 expirations.
Where can I see Max Pain today?
On the instrument pages in the Analytics section: Max Pain, walls, the expected move and open interest are updated every trading day.
How is Max Pain calculated?
From a series' open interest: for each strike, total payouts to option holders are computed as if price ended there, and the strike with the smallest total is taken. More in the Max Pain article.
How can I see these levels on a chart?
The OLIMP indicator draws Max Pain, option walls and the expected move right in MetaTrader 5; it is free on a live account — download.
Test based on CME data and broker prices, June–September 2026. Not investment advice.