On September 24 the October COMEX options on silver and copper expired — both series far from their Max Pain. For metals this is an interesting moment: since June, after such expirations price returned to the expired level the following month in 5 cases out of 6. Here is how it looks now.
Silver: 60% of the way already covered
The October series Max Pain on its last day was 66.00, and the series settled with price at 64.75 — 1.9% below. The next day price is already 65.50: of the $1.25 distance, 0.75 is covered — 60% of the way.
Silver's history is telling: after the July expiration (Max Pain 63.00 with price at 58.00) and the August one (65.00 at 70.50), price reached the expired level both times.
The expired series had a strong call bias: 40.0k calls vs 11.3k puts. The largest strikes were $92 and $100 (12.0k and 11.0k), far out of the money: bets on a sharp rally that expired worthless.
Silver: the December series
- price over the week — from 67.25 to 65.50 (−2.6%), a one-month range of 64.00–70.75;
- open interest grew on both sides: calls +5.5% (25.1k), puts +5.9% (9.0k);
- calls near price — 75 (1.5k), 65 (1.1k), 70 (0.8k); puts — 65 (1.0k), 55 (0.7k), 60 (0.5k);
- Max Pain — 65.00, almost at price; Balance COI — 66.02;
- expected move to expiration — ±11.4% (58.06–72.94): silver volatility is high at 35%.
Silver's Balance COI and the expired Max Pain sit side by side — 66.02 and 66.00. COI is the only level that, in our research, price approached before expiration more often than a random one (44% vs 30%).
Copper: a quarter of the way and fresh protection
The October series Max Pain was 6.65, price at expiration 6.85 — 3% above. Now 6.80: about a quarter of the way covered.
Copper's history is mixed: after the July expiration (Max Pain 6.30 at 6.40) price moved the other way, after the August one (6.45 at 6.75) it got there.
In the December series puts grew faster than calls over the week: +9.4% (10.5k) vs +3.2% (17.7k). The main fresh inflow is puts at 6.30: +341 in a week, 330 of them on September 25 alone. Calls were added at 7.30 (+281).
- calls near price — 7.00 (3.2k), 7.25 (1.5k), 7.50 (1.1k); puts — 6.70 (1.1k), 6.30 (0.7k), 6.50 (0.6k);
- December Max Pain — 6.50, Balance COI — 6.75;
- expected move to expiration — ±7.7% (6.28–7.32).
What we are watching until October 27
- silver 66.00–66.02 — the expired Max Pain and Balance COI at the same point;
- copper 6.65 — the expired Max Pain; 6.30 — where new puts accumulate;
- the pull sample is still small: this is an observation, not a rule — we will review it after the November expiration.
CME (COMEX) data as of 25.09.2026: October series (expired 24.09.2026) and December series (expire 24.11.2026). Not investment advice.