The euro lost 1.5% in a week — from 1.1585 to 1.1412. The options market rearranged itself after the price: protection arrived faster than bets on a rise.
Puts arrive faster than calls
From September 15 to 24 in the October series (expires October 9):
- put open interest rose 17% — from 58.5k to 68.4k contracts;
- call open interest rose 15%, from 29.0k to 33.4k;
- the put/call ratio (PCR) holds around 2.0 — twice as many puts as calls.
Both sides are adding positions, but in contracts puts grew twice as much: +9.8k versus +4.5k. Downside protection is being bought more actively than bets on a rise.
1.1400 is the key level right now
On September 24 alone, 4,621 new puts were opened at 1.1400 on volume of 6,605 contracts. It is now the largest strike in the series at 10.8k contracts.
Above price sits a dense put wall: 1.1450 (9.4k) and 1.1500 (10.0k). Below 1.1400 open interest thins out sharply: the next notable strikes are 1.1350 and 1.1300, about 3k contracts each.
Max Pain is out of reach
Max Pain has been at 1.1650 since August 19 and is now 2% above price. But options price an expected move to expiration of only ±1.0% — a range of 1.1303–1.1521. The market is not pricing a return to Max Pain within 15 days.
Protection is getting more expensive
At-the-money implied volatility rose from 4.6% to 5.9% in a week, and puts trade richer than calls — a downside skew.
What we are watching
- whether 1.1400 holds — where fresh interest is concentrated;
- below 1.1400 there is almost no options “cushion” until 1.1350–1.1300;
- a move back above 1.1450–1.1500 — where about 19k puts sit.
CME data as of 24.09.2026, October contract (expires 09.10.2026). Not investment advice.
Corrected on 30.09.2026: the first version said calls fell 26% and PCR rose to 3.5. That was a bulletin parsing error — deep out-of-the-money option rows were dropping out of the data. After the fix: calls rose 15%, PCR around 2.0. The conclusions about the 1.1400 strike, the put walls and Max Pain are unchanged.